Assessment of the Uncertainty of Delivery – Promises to Increase the Reliability of Production Networks

• Lars Zschorn

Collaboration in temporally limited, order specific production networks requires reliable value adding by each participant of the production network. The selection of participants of such kind of networks bases on offers which determine among other things the date of delivery and the quantity of the share of value adding. To meet the promised delivery date, the potential network participant needs explicit information about the reliability of their offered date of delivery during the stage of generating an offer. This means, the uncertainty of a difference between the promised delivery date and the delivery date in reality should be quantified. The calculation of the measure of uncertainty can be embedded within the order promising process for assessment of the offer. This measure is a dynamic value and this enables also a precondition of possible disturbances and their influences during the value adding process. That is why a continuous ascertainment of the uncertainty of all network participants until their due date integrated within the process control of the production network opens new potentials to avoid disturbances.

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